From Trends to Truth: Understanding Correlation Vs. Causation

In the world of fitness, it can seem like every day brings a new trend, a new tip, or a miracle hack—be it from a celebrity, a popular trainer, or a well-followed podcast. But have you ever wondered if these “proven” tricks are truly as effective as they sound?

The truth is that not all fitness advice is created equal, and a critical factor in deciphering fact from hype is understanding the difference between correlation and causation. Knowing this can make all the difference between wasting time (or even risking injury) and achieving genuine, sustainable results.

WHAT ARE CORRELATION AND CAUSATION?

Let’s start with some definitions.

• Correlation simply means that two things are related or occur together. If you notice that many people who lift weights also drink protein shakes, you’ve spotted a correlation. However, this doesn’t mean protein shakes alone are the reason they’re gaining muscle.

• Causation, on the other hand, is when one factor directly causes a change in another. Regular strength training, for example, directly leads to muscle growth due to the stress and adaptation placed on muscle fibers. Without the training, the muscle growth wouldn’t happen, so there is a causative relationship.

It’s easy to see how these can be confused, especially in fitness. A person might say, “I did this one exercise and got great abs,” implying a causative relationship when it may actually be a case of correlation. Other factors—like overall diet, genetic predisposition, and even other forms of exercise—could be involved, too.

WHY IT’S EASY TO CONFUSE CORRELATION AND CAUSATION IN FITNESS

The appeal of simple, definitive answers in fitness is strong. After all, who doesn’t want a quick solution to their health goals? Fitness is hard work, and we naturally gravitate toward anything that promises to make it a little easier or more predictable. But because the human body is complex, most fitness advice is far from one-size-fits-all.

Another reason this confusion happens is the influence of fitness celebrities and social media personalities. Influencers can be extremely persuasive, often showcasing before-and-after photos or promoting specific exercises or products with a promise of results. Without further context, it’s easy to believe that whatever worked for them is guaranteed to work for you.

But when we follow advice based solely on correlation, we might overlook more effective solutions or even risk injury. For example, “doing crunches for abs” is an idea based on correlation rather than causation. Just because people with strong abs might do crunches doesn’t mean that crunches will lead to visible abs for everyone. Understanding this difference can keep you focused on practices that are more likely to yield real results.

EXAMPLES OF CORRELATION VS. CAUSATION IN FITNESS

Let’s explore how these concepts show up in common fitness advice.

1. Protein Shakes and Muscle Gain

• Correlation: Many people who are serious about building muscle also consume protein shakes. This correlation might lead others to think that drinking protein shakes is all they need to gain muscle.

• Causation: Muscle growth is caused by a combination of factors, including strength training and sufficient protein intake (which can be from shakes or other protein-rich foods). Without the training stimulus, muscle protein synthesis won’t be triggered, meaning the shake alone doesn’t cause muscle growth.

2. Cardio and Weight Loss

• Correlation: People who engage in cardio tend to lose weight, leading many to assume that cardio alone is the key to weight loss.

• Causation: Weight loss is primarily driven by a calorie deficit, where you burn more calories than you consume. Cardio is one way to burn calories, but diet, strength training, and other factors also play crucial roles. Cardio alone doesn’t “cause” weight loss—achieving a calorie deficit does.

3. Stretching and Injury Prevention

• Correlation: Athletes and regular gym-goers who stretch often report fewer injuries, which could be interpreted as stretching preventing injury.

• Causation: Injury prevention is more accurately attributed to a comprehensive warm-up that includes dynamic stretching, mobility exercises, and a gradual increase in activity intensity. Stretching is beneficial but doesn’t directly “cause” injury prevention.

MISLEADING CORRELATIONS IN POPULAR FITNESS ADVICE

Certain fitness trends and products take advantage of the correlation-causation confusion, making claims that sound convincing but often fail to deliver lasting results.

1. Detoxes and Weight Loss: Detox products often claim to cause weight loss, and in the short term, they may seem to work. However, the loss is typically water weight rather than fat, and it’s temporary. This short-term result is a correlation with reduced food intake and water weight, not a true fat-loss solution. The actual cause of sustainable weight loss remains a calorie deficit combined with a balanced diet and regular exercise.

2. Single Exercises for Spot Reduction: The idea that you can reduce fat in a specific area by targeting it with exercises—like crunches for belly fat or triceps exercises for arm fat—is another case of confusing correlation with causation. While people with toned abs or arms might do these exercises, the reduction of fat in those areas is the result of an overall focus nutritional meal program, not the exercises themselves. Spot reduction has been repeatedly debunked as a myth.

HOW TO USE THIS KNOWLEDGE TO YOUR ADVANTAGE

Knowing the difference between correlation and causation allows you to make more informed decisions, saving you time and helping you reach your fitness goals more effectively. Here’s how you can apply this knowledge in your fitness journey:

1. Ask Questions

When you come across new fitness advice, ask yourself if there’s solid evidence behind it. For example:

• Is there a clear mechanism by which this practice leads to results?

• Has this approach been studied, or are the claims based on anecdotes?

2. Consult Science-Backed Sources

Look for advice from experts who rely on evidence-based methods. Coaches, nutritionists, and other professionals who base their recommendations on well-researched principles are more likely to deliver effective results.

3. Evaluate the Whole Picture

Results in fitness often come from a combination of habits. A healthy diet, regular exercise, proper recovery, and stress management all play essential roles. Focusing solely on one factor can limit your progress and set unrealistic expectations. Remember that fitness is multifactorial; no single approach or product is likely to yield significant change on its own.

Fitness is a long-term commitment, and results come from consistent, science-backed practices. By understanding the difference between correlation and causation, you’re equipped to cut through the noise and avoid wasted effort on unproven fads.

So, the next time you’re inspired by someone’s progress or a promising trend, take a moment to ask: is it correlation, or is it causation? This simple step could save you time, money, and frustration—and help you stay focused on practices that genuinely work.

At Evolve, we value science-backed fitness that delivers real results. Whether you’re looking to get stronger, lose weight, or improve your overall health, we’re here to guide you with evidence-based advice and programs that work. Ready to tackle your fitness goals the smart way? Call/Text (973) 352 - 0933 to book a session with one of our expert coaches to get personalized, science-backed advice that truly works.